Thank You for Your Vote.

To everyone that voted for me on the 5th of May.

Thank you for your confidence in me.
I will do my best for the Wards of Priestwood and Garth.

Foot Slog, no Blog

Keep meaning to get on and Blog.
The trouble is what with working, and then slogging around the streets meeting people and delivering election literature, I have felt too tired to do so.
Perhaps later, after walking the dog and having a quick pint.
(Thinks OH NO  more walking...)

Mathematics, democracy, paradox and pitfall

The New Scientist Editorial refers to an article in the magazine, and says that “The mathematics of democracy turns out to be so fraught with pitfalls and paradoxes that complete fairness is probably unattainable.”

The principle of voting in the UK is currently simple. Each of our electoral divisions/constituencies elects just one representative. The candidate who gained the most votes in the election is the winner. In this system votes for anyone other than the winning candidate are disregarded. In Bracknell the winner was Dr Phillip Lee who gained over 50% of the vote.

In the NS article it points out that if more than two parties with substantial support contest a constituency, a candidate does not have to get anything like 50% of the votes to win. In this case a majority of votes may be considered to be "lost".  Take somewhere like Hampstead and Kilburn where Glenda Jackson got just under 33% of the vote. It could be that 67% of the people there are now quite dissatisfied.

From the NS Article an example by mathematician Donald Saari at the University of California:

Suppose 15 people are asked to rank their liking for milk (M), beer (B), or wine (W).

6 rank them M-W-B,
5 rank them B-W-M,
4 rank them W-B-M.

In a plurality system where only first preferences count, the outcome is simple: milk wins with 40%, followed by beer, with wine trailing in last.

Do voters actually prefer milk?

9 voters prefer beer to milk, and
9 prefer wine to milk
Clear majorities in both cases. Meanwhile,
10 people prefer wine to beer.

By pairing off all these preferences, we see the truly preferred order to be W-B-M - the exact reverse of what the voting system produced.

Saari showed that given a set of voter preferences you can design a system that produces any result you desire. You can read more about systems/anomalies in the article.

Preferential voting comes closer to being fair than plurality voting, but it does not eliminate ordering paradoxes.
Given three candidates, A, B and C, and three voters who rank them
A-B-C,
B-C-A and
C-A-B.
Voters prefer A to B by 2 to 1. But B is preferred to C and C preferred to A by the same margin of 2 to 1.
Every one a winner!

In a proportional representation system each party is awarded a number of seats in proportion to the number of people who voted for them. This may be fairer in a mathematical sense than plurality or preferential voting, but implies large, multi-representative constituencies and central lists of people that may be quite remote from the voter. This system also carries with it the possibly of paradoxes occurring.

The NS article points out that there will always be the possibility that one voter, simply by changing their vote, can change the overall preference of the whole electorate.

It seems that in any system we could end up with a hung result. One way to quantify this is the Banzhaf power index. First, list all combinations of parties that could form a majority coalition, and in all of those coalitions count how many times a party is a "swing" partner that could destroy the majority if it dropped out. Dividing this number by the total number of swing partners in all possible majority coalitions gives a party's power index.There are a number of calculators available that one can Google for.

There is a bit in the article about the word gerrymander, which  was coined by a newspaper editor in reaction to a redrawing of boundaries.  Governor Elbridge Gerry. It included one sprawling supposedly salamander-shaped constituency. This leads me on to the Conservative policy to reduce the number of MPs by 10%, and ensure each vote has equal value by reducing the wide discrepancies between constituency electorate sizes. 

The Guardian says that the adoption of the "alternative vote" electoral system would have had only a minimal impact on the outcome of last Thursday's general election with the Liberal Democrats gaining only an additional 22 seats, according to analysis by the Electoral Reform Society. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives would have benefited significantly from transfers based on last Thursday's vote. Significant regional imbalances would remain between the parties.

The newspaper also has a useful bit on the AV and Plus systems. AV Plus was recommend by the Jenkins Commision. PDF of report HERE. So much for the promises made by Labour since 1997?

IT, Technology, and the General election

I have visited some IT and technology related blogs recently, and found a lot of misinformation about. I thought I would post here what you can find on the Conservative party website. The information is all there. One of the reasons I first got involved in politics, was down to the introduction of IR35. As was usual with the Brown/Blair administration, this was not in the headlines of the budget, but in the small print. The aim of the legislation may have been laudable, but the outcome has been farcical. It has cost both IT contractors and the country a lot of money for nothing. If you are in IT please read through the following links. The blog may read a bit strange, but it is a collection of replies/cut and paste to other blogs.

From the Conservative Technology Manifesto:

“The Labour Government have spent more per capita than any other government in Europe on IT – but too much money has been wasted on failed projects, and they have failed to use these procurement projects to stimulate innovation and growth in the economy. Conservative government will open up government IT procurement to innovative new companies and small businesses. Under Labour, just nine IT companies received 60% of public sector IT spending. We can’t go on like this.”http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2010/03/Conservative_Technology_Manifesto_launched.aspx

Conservative will provide a boost to British business and help create highly paid new jobs across the country. Our plans will give Britain the fastest high speed broadband network in Europe, helping to create 600,000 additional jobs. Conservatives will make the British government the most technology-friendly in the world, and meet the ambition that the next generation of Googles, Microsofts and Facebooks are British companies.

See “Where we Stand” – The Conservative goal is simple: to make Britain the easiest and the best place in the world to set up and grow a business.
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Business.aspx

Mark Prisk, the Shadow Business Minister, has announced that a Conservative Government would undertake a full and fundamental review of small business taxation, including IR35.

The aim will be to provide a simpler, clearer and lasting tax regime, so businesses can plan with confidence.

"For the last 13 years, Labour have constantly meddled with the tax rules for freelancers and self-employed, Prisk said. "IR35 has especially proved to over-complex, uncertain and often unfair".

IR35 has cost business £73 million over 10 years but it has barely raised revenue for the Treasury. Prisk criticised Gordon Brown for making it harder to be self-employed at a time when Britain should be open for business.

"This is why a Conservative Government would mandate the independent Office of Tax Simplification to undertake a fundamental review of current arrangements with the aim of providing a clearer, lasting and fairer tax regime".

http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2010/03/Conservative_tax_reform_to_aid_self_employed.aspx

Phillip Lee - The campaign continues

A party political blog post. But first a short story from Cardiff Blogger


Serious stuff!
I recently asked my friend’s little girl what she wanted to be when she grows up. She said she wanted to be Prime Minister some day. Both of her parents, New Labour, were standing there, so I asked her:
‘If you were Prime Minister what would be the first thing you would do?’

She replied, ‘I’d give food and houses to all the homeless people.’

Her parents beamed.

‘Wow…what a worthy goal.’ I told her, ’But you don’t have to wait until you’re Prime Minister to do that.
You can come over to my house and mow the lawn, weed the garden and sweep my patio, and I’ll pay you £50. Then I’ll take you over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give him the £50 to use toward food and a new house.’
She thought that over for a few seconds then she looked me straight in the eye and asked: ’Why doesn’t the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the £50?’
I said: ”Welcome to the Conservative Party!”
Her parents still aren’t speaking to me.


Anyway - moving on...

Participation and Donation


Anyone and everyone can help Dr Phillip Lee get elected.
He is eager to serve all the people of Bracknell Town, Finchampstead, Crowthorne and Sandhurst. He wants this constituency to remain a great place to live.
www.phillip-lee.com/ 

Helpers are always most welcome.
You can help by distributing literature.
You could carry out surveys/canvassing in your area in order to gain information about the electorate’s voting intentions, worries and concerns, etc.  This information enables us to campaign effectively and helps to increase our membership base.
Many people find that their skills can be best utilised by helping to organise the many varied social events that take place throughout the year, helping to raise funds as well as bringing enjoyment to everyone involved.
Donations to campaign costs are always most welcome.

More at myconservatives.com/dr-phillip-lee-for-bracknell 
And at bracknellconservatives.com 

Find Bracknell Conservatives on Facebook HERE

Dr Phillip Lee

There was a question on another blog about the Conservative candidate for the next General Election. I thought that I may as well post the information here as well with a few useful links.

Dr Phillip Lee has already been on many “walkabouts” in the constituency despite the weather. The reception he has received has been most encouraging. People are impressed by his sincerity and integrity. There have also been deliveries of old fashioned leaflets through the doors. The literature has been somewhat slow going

out due to the weather situation. You can read the thing (in PDF format) at http://www.bracknellconservatives.com/news/itw10.pdf

The Conservative party has a Facebook page for local Conservatives at http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=232485490146 and Phillip has a page at http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=162793066550

If you are really passionate about a better future for tomorrow, why not join the campaign, donate, or just get involved at http://www.myconservatives.com/campaigns/dr-phillip-lee-for-bracknell

See also  http://www.bracknellconservatives.com/

Why not go that bit further - join the Conservative Party and Make Change Happen.

Broken stuff and shoestrings

I was reading Conservative Home earlier, and came across the blog of Matthew Parris, who has a column in the Sunday Times. He has written a piece about the Conservative year of opposition.

"For them it’s about the future now: no time to linger over might-have-beens, no point in post mortems on opposition. But the rest of us are entitled to sneak a backwards glance."

He goes on to make several observations - You can read more here

His last point is that:

"We became a party of social justice. I'm biased (I count Iain Duncan Smith as a very close friend) but I'm proudest of this achievement. Iain was a rejected leader but by continuing work he began from 2001 until 2003 he has become one of the very biggest beasts in the Conservative jungle. More important than that - through his Centre for Social Justice - he has helped developed a policy agenda that can reverse the increase in deep poverty that has characterised the Brown-Blair years. It's going to be hard given the state of the public finances but there are things we can do without spending much money. "

I trawled through various links above, and came across a Telegraph article:

"In many voters' eyes, family breakdown is directly related to the rise in thuggery, drug abuse and street violence. The number of young people stabbed to death in the past three years suggests a street life reminiscent of William Golding's Lord of the Flies. The casual intimidation and vandalism by groups of teenagers roaming around neighbourhoods terrifies residents up and down the country.

According to Conservative leader David Cameron, these are symptoms of a society that is broken; in which stable two-parent families are becoming the exception; where individual rights have blunted our sense of duty and responsibility; and where successive generations of children face a life devoid of hope or dignity."

- Broken Britain – can we fix it?

I think a answer is that there are a lot of things that can be fixed without spending lots of money.